Top o’ the mornin’ gang!
Well, it’s the home opener against Green Bay. Since I picked last week right on the head—oh, maybe not. How did I know the defense would miss the plane—we’re going to try this again. Last week the defense, this week the Eli Manning mess is liable to mess me up something awful.
Here’s five questions to mull over your cup of java.

1. If Eli Manning starts, will the Giants win?
Put it this way. If Eli starts, it means he can make all this throws. And if he can make all his throws, that means he’ll be able to find Plaxico Burress deep. And if that happens, the Packers defense will be stretched and vulnerable. It could be a lot like last week, with the Giants putting up plenty sufficient points to win. But if Manning’s bruised shoulder keeps him on the sideline, then Jared Lorenzen will have to step in. Even though the kid’s got a rocket arm, he won’t be able to go deep because he won’t have the on-field relationship with Burress and Amani Toomer that Manning has. Still, there’s hope with Lorenzen. Look for Jeremy Shockey to have a big game as Lorenzen throws a bunch of short and middle seam stuff.

2. Will Michael Strahan pass Lawrence Taylor for the Giants’ career sack record?
Oh, this is just too delicious. He’s already gotten snippy with a reporter asking him about the swan dive Brett Favre took in 2001 to give him the NFL’s single-season sack record. Now, he faces Favre again for a shot at the career franchise mark. Let’s dream a bit here. Last Packers play of the game, Strahan breaks in off left defensive end and Favre takes off toward the sideline. Justin Tuck is there, too, but at the last minute Tuck pulls up and lets Strahan pass him. Favre, looking back to see Strahan’s whereabouts the whole time, runs out of bounds a step ahead of Strahan, behind the line of scrimmage, to give Strahan the record without even touching his buddy this time.
I’d pay a nickel to be in the front of the pack for that press conference. Can you spell Testy?
3. Back to serious business, has the defense fixed its flaws from last week?
Good question. At least the game’s at home, so they won’t miss the plane. My guess is they haven’t fixed everything, though. As a strong-side linebacker, Mathias Kiwanuka is looking more and more like a great defensive end. My guess is he won’t be much more comfortable in coverage this week than he was in Dallas, where he basically had no idea Jason Witten was even in the lineup. Not to lay it all on him, but he was the most blatant of a really bad effort by the linebackers and safeties. Sam Madison is healthy again and is expected to replace R.W. McQuarters at cornerback, which to me is a push. If Favre can find Donald Driver consistently downfield, the Giants are going to be in for another long defensive day. The whole solution here is to pressure him from the front, which means Tuck—Osi Umenyiora might not play, and if he does he’ll probably be at less than full effectiveness—and Strahan need to have big days. And, hey, if they cover a bit, they could even pick off Favre a few times.
4. Can they win a shootout?
Don’t count on it. A shootout would mean Favre is having the kind of day he wanted in last week’s poor offensive performance against the Eagles. And that means the defense is suffering again. If Manning is in there, they’ll have a shot. I just don’t see Lorenzen being capable of putting up those kinds of points in his first professional start.
5. Derrick Ward?
I like the kid. He’s been waiting for this moment for four years. Ward looked great in filling in for Brandon Jacobs once Jacobs came out with a sprained right MCL. But this starting business is different. If Ward and his cohorts Reuben Droughns and Ahmad Bradshaw can generate a running game to keep the heat off Manning or Lorenzen, the Giants will be in great shape. Ward’s a fighter, but I worry about his durability after spending parts of the last two seasons on injured reserve. I’m thinking Tom Coughlin will keep his carries to around 20, with Droughns filtering in for a series here and there. If Ward succeeds, not only will things open up downfield, but he might just come out of this one with a big-time reputation.
Prediction: Too many defensive problems to fix in one week. Packers 27-17.
Ciao for now.