One For The Geeks
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- January
- 29
Okay, computer geeks. Here’s something for you.
Brady Throws 99,997 Interceptions; Pats Still Win
Defiance, OH — Even with Quarterback Tom Brady throwing 99,997 interceptions, the New England Patriots scored more than 14 million points to beat the New York Giants in 500,000 simulations of Super Bowl XLII. According to SportSims.net, in their simulations of this year’s Super Bowl matchup, the Patriots won 79% of the time – the highest winning percentage in their 21-year history.
SportSims.net, with a record of 15-5 in past Super Bowl predictions, calculated that the Patriots will win with a score of 34-24 over the Giants.
“The better team, by quite a margin, is the New England Patriots according to our simulation,” said David Holt of SportSims.net. The average points scored: New England-28.6, New York-20.3. Holt, who has been running this simulation program for 21 years, along with his colleagues Alan Stephenson and Steve Olson, entered the players’ actual season statistics into their simulation engine to get the most accurate results possible.
In 500,000 simulations, the New England Patriots won 79% of the time. When the Patriots won, they outscored the New York Giants 31-18. In the 21% of the games where New York won, they outscored New England 28-21.
According to Holt, “It will be a tough road for the Giants, but if they focus on some key factors that we discovered in the game simulation, they have a solid opportunity to pull an upset.”
What are the three critical key factors for the Giants to beat the Patriots? The Giants must have no turnovers, sack quarterback Tom Brady at least three times, and contain wide receiver Wes Welker.
“If the Giants keyed on those factors, we saw a 32% shift in the winning percentages and the Giants won 53% of the games,” according to SportSims.net president, Steve Olson.
The representative game reveals how the game will unfold. New England leads the game 21-17 at halftime, then the Giants rally to tie the score at the end of the third quarter. Then in the fourth quarter, the Patriots surge to score 10 unanswered points to win Super Bowl XLII. Tom Brady is named the Super Bowl MVP on the strength of his passing game, completing 24 of 36 passes for 284 yards with two passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown.
SportSims.net, a unique online sports simulation, allows subscribers to compete against other people in dynasty franchise football seasons using customized game plans, team management, trading and a state-of-the-art Live Draft. SportSims.net’s Super Bowl prediction is for entertainment only and not for gambling purposes.
Super Bowl XLII Statistics, Play-by-Play and the Box Score can also be viewed online at www.sportsims.net/superbowl42.asp
MY OPINION: Guess it’s healthier than playing Grand Theft Auto.
Ciao for now.
This entry was posted
on Tuesday, January 29th, 2008 at 12:11 am by Ernie Palladino.
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Ernie Palladino
does 15-5 even beat the spread for the past 20 years? My magic 8 ball is 16-4. Tell me you didn’t pull that story off the wire .
So, basically, this guy spend umpteen hours developing software to tell us that, STATISTICALLY, the Patriots are a better team? Wow, that is shocking news.
Good thing they play the games on the field instead on some tool’s computer…
Bet that camel’s pick, like I posted yesterday.
The camel’s been right about 80 percent of the
time…and the camel picked the Giants.
There is other good “mojo” involving that camel too.
What did this simulator predict for the Patriots vs. Rams Super Bowl in 2002?
Weren’t the Pats 16 point dogs against the “Greatest Show on Turf”?